How To Protect Yourself During The Bear Market Rally

As we near the halfway point of 2025, markets have offered plenty of noise but little net movement. Equities are flat on the year, despite dramatic swings across asset classes. Bitcoin and Gold stand out as the only real winners so far, notching double-digit gains. Volatility has been abundant, driven largely by tariff dynamics and how they’ve been rolled out. That narrative has dominated everything from stocks to bonds to crypto, and will likely continue to do so.

The equity market’s path has been more chaotic than constructive. From the poster board revealed on Liberation Day to today’s murky policy backdrop, the price action tells a story of turbulence rather than trend. QQQ in particular has been the poster child for this—whipsawed by every twist and turn in trade rhetoric. While there’s been movement, there hasn’t been much actual progress.

Given all this, we’re not especially eager to load up on risk. Bitcoin has been a rare bright spot, and we’ve had exposure there for nearly a month now. But as for the Qs, we don’t see enough evidence to call this the start of a sustainable uptrend. Nor do we fully buy the bear market rally narrative. It’s more complicated than that, and it’s a market searching for footing.

And that’s exactly when discipline matters most. Not when things are clear, but when they aren’t, when temptation creeps in through headlines and half-baked narratives. At Market Radar, we don’t just preach discipline, we apply it. FOMO is the silent killer of portfolios, and once it sinks in, it doesn’t stop until it’s drained your edge. This year’s been noisy with macro whiplash, headline-driven swings, and no real rhythm, but that’s the point. Our strategy isn’t built for hype; it’s built for durability. We’ve seen markets like this before, and we’ll see them again. The key is staying mechanical, staying sharp, and not letting the waves knock you off course. This game rewards consistency, not impulse, and we’re here for the long run, not the hot hand.

That kind of discipline doesn’t just matter during chaotic weeks, it’s what guides us through transitional quarters, even years. And right now, we’re in one of those moments. Nothing in this environment is linear, and the second half of 2025 isn’t shaping up to be any more predictable than the first. So instead of chasing clarity that doesn’t exist, we focus on the process.

We've got two directions out of this slowdown: growth expectations either rise and bring us into an Expansionary regime, or growth expectations fall and bring us into deflation.

Expansion Regime Scenario: All equity prices tend to rise in expansion, some slower than others, but positioning now in safe haven stocks with minimal tariff risks like Consumer Staples, Utilities, Healthcare will allow positive performance in this current regime, and in an expansionary regime if we get there.

Deflation Regime Scenario: This is the scenario you want to protect yourself against the most, with this current climate we can end up in deflation just because of a few headlines. Consumer Staples, Utilities and Healthcare all perform well during this regime.

Important to note: Healthcare is at risk due to Trump policies.

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