MACRO LEDGER

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE BET AGAINST AMERICA FAILS?

There’s a narrative sweeping through markets right now that feels almost irresistible. The dollar is debasing. Emerging markets are finally having their moment. Central banks are selling Treasuries an

2/5/2026-Arty

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN CAN'T BOUNCE

The Setup The setup looks almost too clean. Gold is ripping higher in what's shaping up to be a generational move, up more than 55% in 2025 with nearly 50 all-time highs, peaking above $4,370 per ounc

1/24/2026-Gamma

Macro Events

TARIFF RULINGS: MAYBE NO OUTCOME IS BEST

Tariff Purgatory The Supreme Court keeps dodging the biggest trade policy decision in a generation. Markets keep waiting. And here's the uncomfortable truth: the longer this drags on, the better it mi

1/17/2026-Gamma

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE BEAR CASE FAILS TO ESCALATE

The Macro Update This is the moment investors get trapped: the risks are still real, but the market stops acting as if it cares. It has been nearly three months since our Risk-Off call, which is long

1/12/2026-Gamma

2025 ANNUAL LETTER

Most investors will remember this year for the headline number: the S&P 500 up 17.9%. Fewer will remember how close it came to breaking them along the way. A brutal -20% drawdown didn’t just test port

1/4/2026-Gamma

HOW SYSTEMATIC TRADING BREAKS THE EMOTION LOOP

Most investors think their decisions are driven by research. In reality, their decisions are driven by emotion long before a single chart or data point is ever analyzed. You feel excitement, you feel

12/1/2025-Gamma

WHEN TAILWINDS DISAPPEAR AND THE HEADWINDS START TO BITE

The Macro Update Markets have entered a stretch where every bounce feels fragile and every headline seems to hit harder than the last. Investors keep searching for signs that conditions are turning, y

11/15/2025-Gamma

WHAT RISK-OFF REALLY MEANS (AND HOW WE PROFIT FROM IT)

Understanding the Regimes We identify risk regimes by analyzing the growth impulses within our macro regime system. By tracking the four macro outcomes: Expansion (Growth +, Inflation –), Inflation (G

11/3/2025-Gamma

HOW WE PLAN TO PLAY A SLOWDOWN: POSITIONING FOR THE NEXT REGIME SHIFT

It’s no surprise that we have shifted from a Risk-On to a Risk-Off risk regime. and our models caught the shift in real time. On October 10, 2025, the signals flipped, and by October 13, we were fully

10/28/2025-Gamma

THE GROWING EVIDENCE BEHIND A GLOBAL RISK-OFF TURN

When markets feel calmest, that’s often when the real shifts begin. Our system triggered a risk-off signal on Friday, October 10th, and by the close on Monday, October 13th, we sold all our risk asset

10/17/2025-Arty

FROM STRENGTH TO STAGFLATION: INSIDE THE MARKET’S QUIET REGIME CHANGE

It's So Over Anyone who’s been following our work knows we don’t chase headlines or panic at the first sign of a dip. We stay grounded in data, not emotion. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been waving

10/11/2025-Gamma

THIS BEAT COVERED CALL ETFS

Income investing has entered a new era. Traditional sources like dividends and bonds no longer dominate the conversation, investors are turning to more dynamic strategies that use covered call option

10/9/2025-Gamma

UNDERSTANDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) COMPOSITION

Gross domestic product, or GDP, is often described as the single number that defines the health of an economy. It captures the total value of goods and services produced, including what consumers buy,

10/2/2025-Gamma

WHEN GROWTH WOBBLES AND INFLATION HOLDS: WHAT COMES NEXT?

Growth Markets are celebrating fresh highs, but beneath the surface, the seeds of the next phase may already be forming. Over the past several weeks, price action has been relentless, with nearly ever

9/24/2025-Gamma

Macro Events

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY'S FOMC

Market Positioning Today’s FOMC meeting delivered further clarity on what the Fed is watching before it pushes further on easing, and the market’s reaction is telling us a bigger story than the headli

9/17/2025-Gamma

THIS IS HOW MELT-UPS START

The Fed is about to choose between “measured” and “mistake.” If they become too easy into an economy that’s still running above capacity, we don’t just grind higher. We melt up. Think late 1990s vibes

9/16/2025-Arty

FREE MACRO TOOLS: NEUTRAL RATE ESTIMATES

Every conversation about interest rates boils down to one question: what level keeps the economy steady, neither overheating nor stalling? Economists call this the “neutral rate,” written as r*. In th

9/14/2025-Gamma

PAYROLLS DON'T MATTER ANYMORE

The U.S. economy is breaking one of its oldest rules. For decades, growth and payrolls moved in lockstep: more jobs meant more output, and every jobs report offered a near-instant read on the cycle. T

9/10/2025-Gamma

THE LABOR MARKET FAKE-OUT

The August Jobs Report May Be the Fed’s Biggest Test Yet Markets just got the weakest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print of the year: only 22,000 jobs added versus expectations of 75,000. Yet the unemployme

9/5/2025-Arty

RIVIAN: THE BULL THESIS

We’ve been following Rivian for a while now, sharing quick thoughts on X and our podcast since early 2024, but it’s time to go deeper. In this piece, we’re laying out our full bull thesis and why we b

9/4/2025-Gamma

SEASONALITY TRENDS: VALUABLE OR USELESS?

Every September, financial media dust off the same charts: “The worst month for stocks,” “Sell in May and go away,” “Santa Claus rally.” Seasonality lore is as old as the market itself, and it never f

9/3/2025-Gamma

MACRO UPDATE: THE LABOR SURPRISE NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT

This Friday’s jobs report might be the most pivotal data release of the year, and not just because every labor print feels like “the most important one ever.” This time, it actually might be. We're go

8/30/2025-Gamma

BITCOIN AND RISK-ON: THE CONVICTION TO STAY LONG

Bitcoin is down 10% from its all-time high in less than a month. To most people, that looks like exhaustion. To us, it’s a signal. If you’ve followed us on X, you’ve seen us stay relentlessly bullish

8/26/2025-Gamma

TIME FOR RATE CUTS?

It seems like the Fed has been in focus lately, specifically the current administration’s adamant calls for significantly lower rates. The market is expecting rate cuts, just nowhere near what the Pre

8/15/2025-Gamma

THE GREAT BULL MARKET

Stocks are booming, the market is at all-time highs, and Bitcoin has broken a multi-month consolidation pattern. Topics like tariffs and the Fed have dominated headlines in the last few months, yet th

7/29/2025-Gamma

THE BACK HALF OF 2025 IS WHERE LEGENDS ARE MADE

It’s June 2025, and we’ve yet to see a Risk-On regime this year. With half a year to go, things can and will likely shift quickly, so stay strapped in your chair because this is where serious alpha ca

6/28/2025-Gamma

HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF DURING THE BEAR MARKET RALLY

As we near the halfway point of 2025, markets have offered plenty of noise but little net movement. Equities are flat on the year, despite dramatic swings across asset classes. Bitcoin and Gold stand

5/31/2025-Gamma

ARE YOU PREPARED FOR A SLOWDOWN?

Last month, we explored the potential transition from a Risk-On regime to a negative growth regime. Fast forward to today: we’ve not only left Risk-On territory but moved through Risk-Off and into Slo

1/21/2025-Gamma

INFLATION, CREDIT, AND RATES A TURNING POINT

THE SYSTEM We’re observing a noticeable acceleration in inflationary pressures across the System. Over recent weeks, growth strength has churned at persistently low levels, while inflation strength ha

12/10/2024-Gamma

SOFT LANDING RATE CUTS - 9.01.2024

OVERVIEW In a financial landscape marked by volatility and shifting probabilities, understanding the nuances of market regimes is more critical than ever. As we approach the quarter mark of the curren

9/1/2024-Gamma

RECESSIONARY CRACKS - 8.01.2024

OVERVIEW As we navigate the shifting tides of the financial markets, it's clear we're in the midst of a significant transition. Over the past month, our system has accurately called the move from Stag

8/1/2024-Gamma

BULLISH RISK-OFF - 7.01.2024

OVERVIEW Navigating the current economic landscape can feel like deciphering an intricate puzzle. As we transition into a Risk-Off environment amidst the onset of a Stagflation regime, the stakes are

7/1/2024-Gamma

IS THE BULL RUN OVER - 05.08.24

OVERVIEW As we approach the midpoint of the year, with equity indices having pulled back off all-time highs and the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears, it's crucial to assess the market from a

5/8/2024-Gamma

WHAT’S NEXT FOR INFLATION? - 03.13.24

OVERVIEW Inflation has significantly influenced market dynamics for the past two years, beginning its sharp rise in early 2021. It wasn't until the end of that year that the Federal Reserve acknowledg

3/13/2024-Gamma

THE QUANTDECK - 01.09.24

Overview Over the past day, we introduced our new and improved daily report the QuantDeck, replacing our old Weather Report. Right now, you can see the System and Ares sections in the QuantDeck. Howev

1/9/2024-Gamma

WHEN STAGE 4 - 11.01.23

As Stage 3 continues, the eagerness to prep for Stage 4 builds. Some of these things include longing gold, the dollar, and ultimately bonds. The Compound Landing has been playing out quite well since

11/1/2023-Gamma

THE COMPOUND LANDING - 08.20.23

THE SETUP A little over a year ago, many folks were pretty convinced that we were headed for a recession. The signs were there, like two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth. The Macro Monkeys

8/20/2023-Gamma

RESPECT THE LAG - 08.10.23

OVERVIEW: With the stock market well off the 52-week lows, many market participants are raising concerns that the Fed isn't nearly restrictive enough for the current economic environment. There is als

8/10/2023-Gamma

FOMC RECAP - 07.26.23

Todays FOMC turned out exactly as expected by us and the markets as evident by the low volatility in both the bond and equity markets throughout the event. Interest rates rose by 25bps once again, we

7/26/2023-Gamma

THE NEXT LEG - 07.17.23

With so many variables at large, let’s simplify the Market Radar message and lay out what we’re seeing as of right now. Soft Landing Let’s start with the current situation with the “Soft Landing”. Giv

7/17/2023-Gamma

THE FED’S SOFT LANDING - 07.06.23

As we’ve heard Powell emphasize, the Fed has a primary objective of both maximum employment and price stability. We’ve seen one of these become unhinged over the past 24 months, that being inflation.

7/6/2023-Gamma

INFLATION FORECASTING - THE POWER OF BREAKEVENS 06.23.23

Breakeven inflation rates are a powerful tool. They’re completely inaccurate, they do not work as intended, and it's much easier for inflation to run hotter than forecasted with the Fed’s finger on th

6/23/2023-Gamma

LIQUIDITY VS COLLATERAL - THE MONEY MARKET CRISIS 06.14.23

With the financial industry abuzz over the upcoming supply shock resulting from the treasuries issuance wave to replenish the TGA (Treasury General Account), it is crucial to gain a comprehensive unde

6/15/2023-Gamma