How We Plan to Play a Slowdown: Positioning for the Next Regime Shift

It’s no surprise that we have shifted from a Risk-On to a Risk-Off risk regime. and our models caught the shift in real time. On October 10, 2025, the signals flipped, and by October 13, we were fully Risk-Off. This wasn’t about headlines or tariffs; it was pure data.We’ve made this very clear across our content. Our models shifted on 10/10/25 (not in correlation to the Trump tariffs), and we’ve been in Risk-Off positioning ever since 10/13. In this ledger, we break down what that regime change means, how close we are to entering a Slowdown phase, and how we’re positioning for what comes next.

We break our risk regimes into three buckets: Risk-On, Slowdown, and Risk-Off. These three buckets are a simplified view of the growth outlook of our models.

• A Risk-On regime is characterized by growth impulses in a bullish trend, irrespective of the trend strength, as long as it's bullish, we’re in Risk-On.
• A Slowdown regime is characterized by growth impulses in a bearish trend, but the strength of those impulses is not greater than 50% to the downside. This zone is also illustrated on the Regime Map with a shaded “Slowdown” background.

• A Risk-Off regime is characterized by growth impulses in a bearish trend, and the strength of those impulses is greater than 50% to the downside.

Earlier this month, growth impulses left bullish trend, sending us into Risk-Off, and we've been there ever since. If you look at the Regime Map below, you can see that in the last few weeks, growth impulses have risen off their lows, signaling that we could likely see a Slowdown regime in the near future. We may not see a Slowdown regime for long, where we either break back down to Risk-Off or do a complete 180 and we see a Risk-On regime again. Remember, we're simply managing risk where we are in the regime today, as those signals change, so will our positioning.

Here's how we will manage our positions in an upcoming shift to a Slowdown regime...