The Back Half Of 2025 Is Where Legends Are Made

It’s June 2025, and we’ve yet to see a Risk-On regime this year. With half a year to go, things can and will likely shift quickly, so stay strapped in your chair because this is where serious alpha can be made. To understand where we are going next, you must understand where we just came from.

Our System, which is our model for measuring macro regimes, absolutely KILLED it coming into this year in terms of risk signaling. We came into the year positioned and prepared for an economic slowdown. Our System signaled this early and allowed us to make some stellar calls on what was coming next. At the time, I laid out these forecasts for everyone in a simple “gun to my head” format:

How’d I do this, and was it just luck? No, before making this call, we closed out our 3x leveraged Nasdaq longs on Christmas Eve. This allowed us to avoid a 60%+ drawdown - something that would shake out many at the lows.

What gave us the conviction to make this call? Our macro-System, it’s early enough where you can catch significant moves and set yourself up for ridiculous periods of compounding. It seems likely we’re on the precipice of another “ridiculous period”, where things can get silly and gains can become stupid. So, given the success of the last one, here’s Gun to My Head – Round 2:

Slowdown continues into Q3, possibly some mid-summer volatility in the indices.

Risk snaps on through Q3 and carries us to the late part of 2025.

#1 slowdown continuation in early Q3 is likely related to Big Bill getting through and some post price consolidation.

#2 risk snapping back on through Q3 and onward will likely be driven by the remnants of fiscal stimulus and tariff narrative weaving via extensions and walk backs.

Our System is good, but our trading models are even better. RQF, our flagship model, is designed to handle dynamic market conditions and environments that shift between Risk-Off, Slowdown, and Risk-On, and Risk-On is just around the corner.

To maximize on these regime shifts, you need multiple conditions to align, because we use leverage and we want the winds in our sails to prevent unnecessary drawdowns. RQF P&L has been consolidating for some time now, and it seems like a breakout is imminent, where things just get silly. We’ve been here before, and I think we’re about to see it again...

Being prepared is only the first step, because you can understand these things are going to happen, perhaps even believe, but you need conviction to execute. This is exactly what our trading models are built for. Zero emotion, and frankly, just straight up trend riding. We hold aggressive positions, and our focus is that we LEVERAGE UP for the runs and AVOID most drawdowns the best we can. To do this effectively, all the signals need to align for us to execute. Patience is a virtue when waiting for conditions to align, and discipline is prudent when leveraging up positions 3x. As long as our models continue executing, you literally will not be able to keep up.