PRODUCT GUIDE
THE MACRO FRAMEWORK
Market Radar's core values are to display highly intricate macro relationships in an easy-to-understand format. This helps people better grasp the macro landscape with as little confusion as possible.
GROWTH & INFLATION
Our regime models are inspired by the works of prestigious investment funds, managers, and advisors who have contributed valuable discoveries throughout multiple areas of finance over the past four decades. We find the rates of changes in growth expectations and inflation expectations to be the most important and reliable in market regime forecasting. Ultimately, the reported rate of change figures at the end of each quarter (GDP and CPI) tell the story. The regimes that are measured based on these four different scenarios of rising and falling growth and inflation expectations are:
EXPANSION
When growth expectations rise, and inflation expectations fall. (Risk-On)
INFLATION
When both growth and inflation expectations rise. (Risk-On)
STAGFLATION
When growth expectations fall, and inflation expectations rise. (Risk-Off)
DEFLATION
When both growth and inflation expectations fall. (Risk-Off)
Relying on quarterly GDP and CPI numbers presents a challenge: the data is already outdated. Since markets act as forward-looking mechanisms, we must focus on anticipating future shifts in the cycle, not just reacting to past data.
In this space, narratives often dominate because people crave compelling stories. But for us, the story is the data. Our approach leverages quant-level market analysis, seamlessly integrating real-time data to decode prevailing market regimes. Grounded in rigorous backtesting since the 1990s, our regime catalysts deliver insights that balance historical credibility with present-day adaptability. By drawing from a vast array of inputs across sectors, indices, and economic indicators, we provide a comprehensive perspective on the market landscape—allowing us to prioritize data-driven decisions over storytelling.
Our real-time macro regime system is designed to address these dynamics head-on. It enables us to identify market regimes in real time, quantify their strength, and act decisively based on the signals. To simplify this framework, we categorize the four regimes into three intuitive risk dynamic zones:
RISK-ON
When growth strength is greater than zero, the market is in an Expansion or Inflation regime. This is a favorable environment for offensive positioning.
SLOWDOWN
This "buffer zone" lies between Risk-On and Risk-Off, where growth strength falls below zero but remains above -50%. Although technically in a Risk-Off state, this zone allows both offensive and defensive strategies to perform. Typically, this corresponds to Deflation or Stagflation regimes.
RISK-OFF
When growth strength drops below -50%, the market enters a clear Risk-Off environment, dominated by Deflation or Stagflation regimes. Defensive positioning becomes paramount.
DDAP INDICATOR
Data-Driven Analytical Process or "DDAP" is our price trend indicator available on TradingView. It allows us to analyze the price, volatility, and momentum of any tradable security over multiple timeframes. The main components of DDAP are MOMO, VAMPs, and Trends.
MOMO
Or momentum, is displayed by the orange line within DDAP. It is the visual pivot point we use to define trends. There are other indicators working under the surface, but this is the easiest one to visualize. Price must be above/below to indicate a trend. It is not a moving average.
VAMPs
Volatility Adjusted Market Projections (VAMP) are the expected ranges where price can move over the next 1-2 weeks. They are displayed by the red, gray, and green lines in DDAP.
- Upper VAMP: The maximum of the price expectation range.
- MID VAMP: The midpoint between upper and lower VAMP.
- LOWER VAMP: The minimum of the price expectation range.
TRENDS
Trends are displayed through a colored background, with green indicating bullish, white/blank indicating neutral, and red indicating bearish. The trends are compiled using MOMO along with additional proprietary indicators to reduce fake-outs.
DDAP SETUP
"Please allow up to 12 hours for your TradingView ID to gain access. If the script is unavailable after this time, resubmit your ID in the member area as it may have been entered incorrectly. If you don’t have a TradingView account, create one for free and submit your username in the member area.
SETUP INSTRUCTIONS
1. ON DESKTOP, LOGIN TO TRADINGVIEW AND CLICK ON "INDICATORS" IN THE TOP BAR:
2. CLICK ON "INVITE-ONLY SCRIPTS":
3. CLICK "DDAP" AND IT WILL BE ADDED TO YOUR CHART:
4. RIGHT-CLICK ON THE RIGHT SCALE OF YOUR CHART AND THEN MAKE SURE "SCALE PRICE CHART ONLY" IS SELECTED:
5. SEARCH "ES1!" ON YOUR TRADINGVIEW CHART. ONCE LOADED, MAKE SURE THE "B-ADJ" AND "SET" ARE SELECTED IN BLUE ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT CORNER OF YOUR CHART:
6. SEARCH "AAPL" ON YOUR TRADINGVIEW CHART. ONCE LOADED, MAKE SURE THE "ADJ" IS SELECTED IN BLUE:
7. SAVE YOUR CHART LAYOUT BY CLICKING "SAVE" IN THE TOP RIGHT CORNER OF YOUR TRADINGVIEW SCREEN:
DDAP SETTINGS
Additional features and components within DDAP settings can be accessed by clicking the gear icon next to the script name on the chart.
HEDGEHOGS / FISHES
These toggles will appear on your TradingView chart, displaying other overbought or oversold conditions via hedgehogs and fishes.
EXHAUSTION ALERTS
The Exhaustion-Alerts channel in the members' Discord area covers alerts for a range of assets. The reversal target is generally mid VAMP.
The rate of alerts can be smoothed to prevent unnecessary cluttering by clicking the HedgehogFishSmoothing box under the Inputs tab in the DDAP settings.
These toggles can be disabled by unchecking these boxes under the Style tab in the DDAP settings.
VAMP EXTENSIONS
This will allow you to widen the current VAMP range. For example, if you want to widen the range by 25%, you would enter 1.25 in VAMP Extension Multiple under the Inputs tab in the DDAP settings.
These are displayed on your charts via the blue lines both above and below upper and lower VAMP.
They can be disabled via the UV Ext and LV Ext boxes under the Style tab in the DDAP settings.
PIVOT POINTS (ONLY AVAILABLE ON ES & NQ FUTURES)
These are intraday ranges for both ES and NQ that are refreshed daily. They are displayed on all timeframes 1 hour or less.
The color can be changed through Intraday Momentum Levels under the Input tab, and they can be completely disabled through the Lines box under the Styles tab in the DDAP settings.
DATA WINDOW
The Data Window contains information regarding DDAP. It displays the percentage distance from Upper VAMP (UV), Lower VAMP (LV), and MOMO (MM) based on the current price. The current percentile of price within the VAMP range is displayed via (VP).
The location of the Data Window can be changed by selecting an alternative option under Table Location in the Input tab in the DDAP settings.
The Data Window can be disabled completely by unchecking the Tables box under the Styles tab in the DDAP settings.
Trend Pivot Estimates
The trend pivot estimates (shown by colored circles and labels) indicate the price levels that would need to be reached in the current trading session to change the trend. Only potential trend changes are displayed - you won't see a pivot estimate for your current trend. For example, if you're in a bullish trend, you'll only see neutral and bearish pivot estimates.
To ensure you're seeing the trend pivot estimates correctly, make sure 'Scale price chart only' is enabled (as explained in the setup instructions above). This ensures proper scaling and visibility of all pivot estimates.
When a neutral pivot estimate occurs at the same price level as a bullish or bearish pivot, the bullish/bearish pivot takes precedence and will be the only one displayed. This helps reduce chart clutter while focusing on the most significant potential trend changes.
STRATEGIES & RADAR QUANT FUND (RQF)
We've meticulously curated a portfolio, actively monitored with real funds in real-time starting in 2024, crafted from a blend of our two powerful strategies—Ares and Astraeus—outlined in the QuantBase. We call this the Radar Quant Fund, RQF for short. We utilize TFLO, a money market ETF, for our cash holdings. TFLO positions are simply cash positions invested for money market returns.
Any models and strategies below are hypothetical. Tickers listed do not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. These products are what we use in our models, they may not be the most cost or tax-effective and can carry substantial risk. It's best to consult with a financial professional prior to making complex financial decisions.
ARES Strategy
The ARES strategy capitalizes on shifting risk dynamics by taking long positions in select market sectors. It operates with a standard leverage factor of 3x across all positions. The unleveraged version, ARES UNLEVERAGED, focuses on Nasdaq (QQQ), healthcare (XLV), utilities (XLU), and bonds (TLT). Meanwhile, the leveraged version, ARES, follows the same trend-based entry and exit signals but employs leveraged instruments: Nasdaq (TQQQ), healthcare (CURE), utilities (UTSL), and bonds (TMF).
The RQF incorporates the ARES strategy, allocating 80% of its exposure to ARES while maintaining disciplined risk management. Though ARES employs a 3x leverage factor using leveraged ETFs, the trend signals remain based on unleveraged total return sector indices. For example, the strategy follows the QQQ total return trend as the signal for entering a long position in TQQQ.
Market Dynamics and Positioning
Risk-On:
Positions in TQQQ to capture growth opportunities if the trend is bullish.
Slowdown:
Diversified exposure to CURE, UTSL, and TMF for both offensive and defensive positioning if the trends are bullish.
Risk-Off:
Defensive allocation to TMF to prioritize stability and preserve capital the trend is bullish.
This strategic framework leverages tailored positioning to capitalize on shifting risk environments while maintaining flexibility and precision.
ASTRAEUS Strategy
The ASTRAEUS strategy focuses on long exposure to Bitcoin. With the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the strategy now employs ETFs for allocations, offering enhanced liquidity and ease of implementation compared to spot holdings. While we are long the ETF, our signals rely on the spot Bitcoin trends, not the trends of the ETFs.
Market Dynamics and Positioning
Risk-On:
Allocates to BITB to capitalize on growth opportunities, independent of the underlying Bitcoin trend.
Slowdown:
Maintains positions in BITB unless the trend turns bearish, aiming to capture potential early reacceleration as the market transitions back to Risk-On.
Risk-Off:
Moves entirely to cash to preserve capital during periods of heightened uncertainty or adverse market conditions.
This adaptive strategy leverages Bitcoin's unique growth potential while incorporating dynamic risk management to align with shifting market environments.
RADAR QUANT FUND (RQF)
RQF combines the sector-focused precision of ARES (80% allocation) with the Bitcoin-centric growth potential of ASTRAEUS (20% allocation), rebalanced quarterly to maintain optimal performance. This composite strategy dynamically adjusts to market conditions, leveraging the strengths of each component.
How RQF Adapts to Market Conditions:
Risk-On:
- ARES: Allocates to TQQQ for growth depending on the trend.
- ASTRAEUS: Allocates to BITB to capture Bitcoin's upside.
Slowdown:
- ARES: Balances across CURE, UTSL, and TMF depending on the trends.
- ASTRAEUS: Stays in BITB unless the trend turns bearish.
Risk-Off:
- ARES: Allocates to TMF for safety.
- ASTRAEUS: Moves to CASH for capital preservation.
Hypothetical Allocation Example:
For a $100,000 portfolio:
- ARES (80%): $80,000 divided among equities, bonds, and defensive sectors based on risk dynamics.
- ASTRAEUS (20%): $20,000 allocated to BITB or cash depending on Bitcoin's trend.
The RQF holdings are displayed daily at the top of the QuantBase here:
QUANTBASE
The QuantBase presents a comprehensive set of tools and data visualization that allow users to understand and utilize the Growth/Inflation regimes framework, monitor global central bank activity, and track historical strategy performance.
INFLATION INDEX - A trend and strength display of our proprietary growth and inflation index. The strength values are used for the X axis in the REGIME MAP.
GROWTH INDEX - A trend and strength display of our proprietary growth and inflation index. The strength values are used for the Y-axis in the REGIME MAP.
REGIME MAP - The regimes we focus on at Market Radar are quantifiable through the interaction of both growth and inflation strengths. While this isn't an approach that is new on Wall Street, we believe the way we leverage our data is. This scatter plot illustrates the trail of the MR growth and inflation indices over the prior 12-month period. This will also give you a visual representation of where we are in the current regime and how close we are to shifting into the next one.
HISTORICAL SYSTEM - This is a tool that allows you to see the performance of our System over time across a handful of different assets. Regimes are displayed in full format or condensed "Risk-Dynamic" format that allows you filter time periods by "Risk-On", "Risk-Off", and "Slowdown.".
CENTRAL BANK MONITOR - The bar charts depict the number of hikes and cuts priced in (orange real time, and gray 15 days ago), while the blue line illustrates the implied policy rate trajectory over time. It provides a quick view of monetary policy expectations for each central bank.
STRATEGY ANALYZER - This tool provides a broad framework for evaluating a strategy, including its performance timeframes (e.g., year to date, 12 months, 24 months) compared to a benchmark. It includes the rules and active positioning for the selected strategy. It also highlights key risk adjusted metrics like the Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, and beta to illustrate the strategy's ability to manage volatility while delivering returns. A performance chart visually tracks the strategy's growth against the benchmark, showcasing growth, drawdowns, and recovery selected timeframes.
GLOBAL TERMINAL RATES - This tool allows you to monitor the terminal rates of the world's major central banks. Displayed are the forward cycle highs, lows and current base rates for major central banks.