STRATEGIES & RQF
We've curated a portfolio, actively monitored with real funds in real-time since 2024, built from a blend of our two strategies, Ares and Astraeus. We call this the Radar Quant Fund (RQF). Both strategies consume the System's six position regimes and translate them into concrete holdings, leverage, and cash decisions. TFLO, a money market ETF, holds our cash.
Unless stated otherwise, all references to Ares, Astraeus, and RQF in this documentation and across the dashboard refer to the production-default variants. For Ares that is the variable leverage track (1x to 3x by regime); for Astraeus it is the Default 2x track (2x or cash, never 1x). The 1x base tracks are computed in parallel and available for reference.
Strategies below are hypothetical. Tickers listed do not constitute a buy or sell recommendation. These products are what we use in our strategies. They may not be the most cost-effective or tax-effective and can carry substantial risk. Consult with a financial professional before making complex financial decisions.
ARES — VARIABLE LEVERAGE STRATEGY
Ares is a regime-based strategy that rotates across equities, commodities, bonds, and gold depending on where we are in the economic cycle. It reads the six position regimes directly from the System and runs a specific playbook for each. Expansion and Inflation are Risk-On, Deflation and Stagflation are Risk-Off, Guarded Inflation is a de-risked Risk-On, and Early Cycle is the Risk-Off to Risk-On transition. There is always an active regime; when every asset in that regime\'s universe is trend-bearish, Ares steps into Cash (labeled AllBearish) until one of the assets turns bullish again.
Signal timing: all signals are evaluated at end-of-day. A signal computed at today's close is traded at the following session's close, and the new position starts capturing returns on the session after the trade.
DRIFT ENGINE
Every multi-asset regime uses the same rule. On entry, capital is split equally among the currently bullish assets of that regime's universe. After that, positions drift freely. Each asset compounds its own return, winners grow, losers shrink, no daily rebalance.
When a held asset's trend turns bearish it is dropped and its value is redistributed equally among the remaining bullish assets. When a non-held asset turns bullish it is picked up and the pool is equally redistributed across the new bullish set. If every asset in the universe is bearish, Ares sits in TFLO (labeled AllBearish) until one qualifies again.
Two transitions carry drift forward instead of starting fresh: Early Cycle → Expansion and Inflation ↔ Guarded Inflation. Every other transition is a hard entry.
EXPANSION
RISK-ONThe economy is growing and inflation is contained, which is the best environment for equities. Ares runs maximum leverage on America's growth engine: technology and consumption. These sectors benefit most from expansion and get hit hardest in busts, but we lean on the System to get us out before that happens, so we can run leverage with conviction.
INFLATION
RISK-ONThe economy is still growing but inflation is rising, so Ares rotates into assets that benefit from rising prices. Industrials and energy commodities benefit directly from stronger input prices. Tech acts as the gatekeeper: if the leading growth sector rolls over, cyclical industrials usually follow shortly after. Energy commodities can stay bid on supply dynamics even when stocks are falling, so they are independent.
GUARDED INFLATION
GUARDEDGrowth is still positive but losing steam. Inflation is the late-stage bull-market regime that eventually cannibalizes growth into stagflation, so Ares front-runs that deterioration by de-risking. Inflation ↔ Guarded Inflation transitions carry drift forward. Only the 50/50 cash split (or its reversal) happens on transition.
STAGFLATION
RISK-OFFStagflation breaks traditional portfolios because both stocks and bonds are under pressure simultaneously. Ares goes long/short instead of picking the least bad long-only option. The short targets small caps because they have the least pricing power, the most domestic exposure, and the thinnest margins. On the long side, gold thrives when real rates are negative, healthcare is demand-inelastic, and industrial metals stay bid on the same supply dynamics causing the stagflation in the first place. The goal isn't to get rich in stagflation. It's to come out the other side with capital intact.
DEFLATION
RISK-OFFBoth growth and inflation impulses are negative. Bonds are the anchor because falling growth and inflation force central banks to cut rates, pushing bond prices up. Healthcare is the most resilient equity sector in a downturn, but it still requires the broad market to be holding up. In deep crashes like 2008 even defensive stocks get dragged down. Utilities follow the same logic with an extra gate: they carry heavy debt loads and compete with bonds for yield, so they need a falling-rate environment (bonds bullish) to work. Gold only comes in when bonds are failing. If every asset is bearish, Ares sits flat in TFLO rather than forcing a trade.
EARLY CYCLE
EARLY CYCLEStill technically in base Deflation, but the next bull market is being front-run. Some of Ares's best returns come from catching these early-cycle entries. The 64-day filter ensures the acute downturn has played out; the -50% growth strength threshold means growth is still negative but inflecting upward, signaling the bottom is in. When the base regime flips from Deflation to Expansion, the position state changes but drift state carries forward: no rebalance, early winners keep compounding into the new bull market.
CASH
TFLOAres sits in TFLO when the position regime is not one of the six supported states, or when a regime is active but every asset in its universe is bearish (AllBearish). Stagflation AllBearish is the one exception. The IWM short leg keeps its entry notional even when all longs are bearish.
LEVERAGED ETF MAP
| Regime | Asset | Leveraged |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion / Early Cycle | XLK | TECL (3x) |
| Expansion / Early Cycle | XLC | LTL (2x) |
| Expansion / Early Cycle | XLY | WANT (3x) |
| Inflation | XLK | TECL (3x) |
| Inflation | DBE | DBE (1x) |
| Inflation | XLI | DUSL (3x) |
| Guarded Inflation | XLK / DBE / XLI | TECL / DBE / DUSL, sized to 1x effective |
| Deflation | TLT | UBT (2x) |
| Deflation | XLV | RXL (2x) |
| Deflation | XLU | UPW (2x) |
| Deflation | Gold | UGL (2x) |
| Stagflation (long) | Gold / XLV / DBB | 1x (unlevered) |
| Stagflation (short) | IWM | IWM (1x short) |
| Cash | — | TFLO |
ASTRAEUS — BITCOIN STRATEGY
Astraeus is a Bitcoin-only strategy that goes long BTC in Risk-On and Early Cycle regimes and sits in cash during Risk-Off. Allocations are binary: fully in, or fully out. Astraeus inherits the six position states from our System. The regime and growth-strength / deflation-duration gates are computed centrally, then Astraeus applies its binary rule on top.
Asset mapping: before 2024-01-16 the strategy tracks BTC returns directly. From 2024-01-16 onwards (IBIT ETF launch) it uses IBIT ETF returns. Reported 1x holdings are always IBIT or TFLO regardless of date, even for the pre-launch period.
ALLOCATION RULES BY POSITION STATE
TRACKS
BASE (1X)
The unlevered track. 1x IBIT when Astraeus is allocated, TFLO when in cash. Runs the original binary allocation rule unchanged across the entire history: long in Expansion, Inflation, and Early Cycle when BTC trend is bullish, cash in Deflation and Stagflation.
DEFAULT (2X)
PRODUCTIONThe production default. Always 2x BITX or cash, never 1x. From 2024-01-11 onwards (the day leveraged BTC ETFs became available) it goes 2x in Expansion, Early Cycle, and full Inflation (growth strength > 25%), and cash everywhere else including Guarded Inflation. The Guarded Inflation exclusion is the key refinement over the base track: that regime is where Inflation starts breaking into Stagflation, and running 2x BTC into that deterioration is the asymmetric downside Astraeus wants to avoid. Before 2024-01-11 there was no leveraged BTC product, so the track reports 1x historically as a product-availability placeholder, not a strategy choice.
Bitcoin is a pure-beta risk asset. Astraeus's job is to hold it when risk assets perform well and move to cash when they don't. Early Cycle gets an unconditional allocation because the recovery trade can start before BTC's own trend has had time to confirm, and Astraeus wants to be there on day one.
RADAR QUANT FUND (RQF)
RQF is a blended portfolio built from two sub-strategies: Ares at 80% and Astraeus at 20%. RQF does not generate its own position signals. It runs Ares and Astraeus in parallel, weights their daily returns by the current drifted allocations, and rebalances back to 80/20 once per quarter. Both a 1x and a dynamic-leverage track are computed simultaneously, so every RQF NAV has both a base and a leveraged version. The benchmark is S&P 500 TR.
TARGET ALLOCATION
Snapshot at each quarterly rebalanceThese are static target values. See the RQF Signals panel on QuantBase for the live drifted weights.
Ares provides the diversified, regime-rotated core (equities, bonds, gold, commodities). Astraeus adds a concentrated Bitcoin sleeve that runs hot in Risk-On and Early Cycle windows. The 80/20 split keeps Ares as the risk anchor and uses Astraeus for asymmetric upside.
QUARTERLY REBALANCE
RQF rebalances exactly once per quarter, on the last trading day of March, June, September, and December. The rebalance executes at the close of that day, after the day's returns have been applied. The new quarter starts at exactly 80/20. The last-trading-day check uses actual historical trading dates so that holidays (such as Good Friday) are handled correctly.
Between rebalance days the portfolio drifts freely. Each sub-strategy compounds independently at its own daily return, and the 80/20 split moves with them. If Ares returns +5% over a quarter and Astraeus returns +20%, Astraeus's share grows and Ares's shrinks. On the next rebalance day the weights snap back to exactly 80/20.
PREVIEW TRADE SIGNALS
RQF fires a preview signal whenever Ares changes a position, Astraeus changes its allocation, or the quarterly rebalance is about to execute. On those days the preview shows tomorrow's blended holdings alongside the exact per-ticker delta from today, which is the trade to execute at tomorrow's close.
TICKER UNIVERSES
Trade executions are notified via Discord and email. RQF holdings are displayed daily at the top of QuantBase.